The Corona Crisis PESTLE, or
Trends we see now that will affect us in the future
► PART 3: Social | Technological
McKinsey (03.2020): In the face of these challenges, resilience is a vital necessity. Near-term issues of cash management for liquidity and solvency are clearly paramount. But soon afterward, businesses will need to act on broader resilience plans as the shock begins to upturn established industry structures, resetting competitive positions forever.
This is why we share with you the C-crisis PESTLE depicting current trends which will form the next normal.
You can access the review on the Political + Legal aspects of C-crisis here.
Our review on the Economic aspects is available here.
In this piece we focus predominantly on the Social + Technological aspects of the current crisis.
► Partition walls between close people
Dnevnik (31.03): ‘There is something very specific of this crisis, namely, the person next to you is the largest threat for you. This leads to a very strange side effect: isolation, careful communication, social distancing is already a sign for solidarity. You help others as you don’t see them, don’t touch them. Nowadays, we more and more hear that this is a crisis for the individualistic societies. However, the reaction to this crisis is clearly individualistic.’
Dnevnik (20.03): ‘In order to survive, governments will compel their citizens to rise walls not between countries, but between themselves, as the threat of contamination comes from people they meet most often. The greatest threat for you is not the stranger, but your close people.’
► New habits are being formed
Harvard Business Review (03.2020): ‘When threatened by crisis, many companies will be focused on defensive moves, but some Chinese companies boldly innovated around emerging opportunities… It is too early to say for sure which new habits will stick in the long run, but some strong possibilities include a leap from offline to online education, a transformation in health care delivery, and an increase in B2B digital channels.’
► „Balancing the Pressure“
Investor (30.03) writes about ‘balancing the pressure’ among those who are highly exposed to the risks from the crisis and those who are less hit by the crisis.
► 20 % vs 80 %
Politico (19.03): ‘The wealthiest fifth of Americans have made greater income gains than those below them in the income hierarchy in recent decades. They are more often members of married, highly educated couples. As high-salary professionals or managers, they live in Internet-ready homes that will accommodate telecommuting—and where children have their own bedrooms and aren’t as disruptive to a work-from-home schedule. In this crisis, most will earn steady incomes while having necessities delivered to their front doors.’
‘The other 80 percent of Americans lack that financial cushion. Some will be OK, but many will struggle with job losses and family burdens. They are more likely to be single parents or single-income households. They’re less able to work from home, and more likely employed in the service or delivery sectors, in jobs that put them at greater danger of coming into contact with the coronavirus. In many cases, their children will not gain educationally at home, because parents will not be able to teach them, or their households might lack access to the high-speed Internet that enables remote instruction.’
► Exponential rise in tech adoption
An increasing number of surveys show that the C-crisis accelerated the adoption of technology. For instance, see the results of Property Forum (15.04).
► Digital is the new Physical
Politico (19.03) talks about a boom to virtual reality: ‘VR allows us to have the experiences we want even if we have to be isolated, quarantined or alone. Maybe that will be how we adapt and stay safe in the next outbreak. I would like to see a VR program that helped with the socialization and mental health of people who had to self-isolate. Imagine putting on glasses, and suddenly you are in a classroom or another communal setting, or even a positive psychology intervention.’
► The rise of telemedicine
Politico (19.03): ‘Ezekiel J. Emanuel is chair of the department of medical ethics and health policy at the University of Pennsylvania.
The pandemic will shift the paradigm of where our healthcare delivery takes place. For years, telemedicine has lingered on the sidelines as a cost-controlling, high convenience system. Out of necessity, remote office visits could skyrocket in popularity as traditional-care settings are overwhelmed by the pandemic. There would also be containment-related benefits to this shift; staying home for a video call keeps you out of the transit system, out of the waiting room and, most importantly, away from patients who need critical care.’
► Smart Cities technologies as a threat to personal freedom
Forbes (13.04): ‘Smart cities can help us combat the coronavirus pandemic. In fact, in a growing number of countries, smart cities are doing just that. Governments and local authorities are using smart city technology, sensors and data to trace the contacts of people infected with the coronavirus. At the same time, smart cities are also helping in efforts to determine whether social distancing rules are being followed.
But on the other hand, the use of masses of connected sensors makes it clear that the coronavirus pandemic is–intentionally or not–being used as a testbed for new surveillance technologies that may threaten privacy and civil liberties. So aside from being a global health crisis, the coronavirus has effectively become an experiment in how to monitor and control people at scale.
The list is not exhaustive. Add any other changes you suppose will form the next normal. Afterwards, head straight forward to the SWOT analysis of your business in the new circumstance.
► Already published:
Scenario Planning for lockdown business people, or What to do till the dust in the air settles
Cinemas are closed till real life feels like a movie, or Which trends during the corona crisis are clear
The Corona Crisis PESTLE, or Trends we see now that will affect us in the future (in 3 parts)
► Next comes:
Race against Time, or What to do right now as soon as possible?
The RE-gnosis, or How to bridge the gap from the future to the present?
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